How are the returns on the 2021 loan performance page calculated?
- This page explains how the return and default metrics on the 2021 retail outcomes statement page are calculated.
- The metrics cover loans acquired through the Conservative and Balanced lending options between 1 January 2020 and 17 April 2020. This includes new loans as well as existing ones purchased from other investors on our secondary market. The metrics assume that loans are held by investors until all repayments have been made.
We provide historical data on overall loan performance for each year of lending on our Statistics Page.
2020 returns
The actual annualised returns, after fees and bad debt.
|
Loans originated 1/1/2020 - 17/4/2020 |
Expected annualised lifetime return |
Expected annualised return - 11 months after acquisition |
Actual annualised return - 11 months after acquisition |
|
Conservative |
4.3 - 4.7% |
6.2% |
6.3% |
|
Balanced |
4.5 - 6.5% |
7.6% |
7.8% |
2020 defaults
The current percentage of loans, by loan amount, that have defaulted.
|
Loans originated 1/1/2020 - 17/4/2020 |
Expected lifetime defaults |
Expected defaults - 11 months after acquisition |
Actual defaults - 11 months after acquisition |
|
Conservative |
4.0 - 5.5% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
|
Balanced |
8.2 - 14.7% |
2.1% |
1.6% |
More detail on how these metrics are calculated can be seen here.
Explaining these numbers
A range of measures have been introduced to support small businesses through the impact of Covid-19, including payment plans offered by Funding Circle and government stimulus measures. This has helped businesses to weather extended periods of trading restrictions and has reduced the number of loans that defaulted in 2020. As defaults lower the return earned by investors, the actual return is higher than it would be if this support was not in place. As economic conditions return to normal through 2021, we expect this to be reflected in an increase in loan defaults and a reduction in the actual annualised return. The latest return projections for each year of lending can be seen on the Statistics page.
Disclaimer
This material contains a number of statistical analyses that have been prepared by Funding Circle. Some of the metrics shown contain forward-looking estimations, which should not be relied upon as a warranty, promise or guarantee as to the future performance of any loans. Any historical information contained in this statistical information is not indicative of future performance. Subject to applicable regulations, no person is under any obligation to update or revise the information. By lending to businesses, your capital is at risk.
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